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Meet Preview by John Stevenson - FHSAA 3A Region 3 2013Published by
FHSAA 3A Region 3A (Barron Collier Freshman Devin Molloy and Estero's Bethany Jenkins Ft Myers Optimist Invitational by Vicki Brown)
Leading the pack are 3 individuals and one of them will take the title as Region Champion - Caroline Barlow from Gulf Coast, Emily Edwards from Ft. Myers, and Araceli Leon from Estero.
Ever since Pre-State, Barlow has been on a rampage winning the Pre-State meet breaking 18 with 17:53 and taking victories at the Collier County meet, Lely Invite, and Districts.
Edwards finished right behind Barlow at FSU with 18 flat and just like Barlow won her county meet and Districts.
Araceli has been very consistent all year and had early season success against Caroline and Emily, but lately hasn't had the final kick to catch Emily at County or Districts. Araceli did finish 5th at FSU with 18:14. The region course is a tough course with sand, hills, and a tight U-turn in the first 200 meters. I think the winner will need to win the race before the last 400 meters since there is a quick, tight downhill, filled with spectators cheering everyone on; the finish comes up quickly on runners.
This strategy is tailored made for Emily Edwards. She is comfortable pushing the pace in the middle of the race. I think if the pack is still together at 2.5 miles then I think the advantage goes to Araceli.
Caroline can take the victory if she goes with Emily and out kicks her at the last 400. So who ís my pick? I'm taking Edwards.
I think she will put in a big 600-800 meter surge in the middle of race and separate from the pack. The dark horse in this race is freshman Devin Molloy from Barron Collier. She has raced very well in big meets with a PR of 18:32. The main question is if she has the strength for the sand and hills.
My top 5 Girls individuals:
Just like the individuals, there are highly ranked teams in Region 3.
The top 3 teams in 3A are in Region 3: Estero, Sarasota, and Ft. Myers.
Estero is actually the #1 ranked team in all classifications; therefore they are the clear favorite. They have gone undefeated and flexed their muscle in big meets.
Estero won Flrunners ROC and the FSU Pre-State Elite race. Sarasota is coming in with a great performance at District 10 meet with 18 points. To have any chance for the upset, Sarasota will need big races from their back end (Allison Wright and Mackenzie Brown) to sneak in front of Estero's #4 (either Bethany Jenkins or Katie Slater).
Ft. Myers only finished 10 points behind Sarasota at the FSU Pre-State with great races from their 3 freshman (Shelby Guttery, Madison Wagoner, and Amber Winton). Ft. Myers will need their back end to beat Sarasota's back end if they want to compete for runner-up.
Estero will take the victory like they have done all season, followed by Sarasota then Ft. Myers.
Here are the teams that will be moving on to Tallahassee: [Looks like a nail biter for the 6th and final place for states between Naples and Robinson]
1. Estero
Boys Preview:
Just like the ladies, Region 3 is stacked.
Four of the top six ranked runners in 3A are in Region 3: Tyler Bennett (Ft. Myers), Zack Summerall, (Sarasota), Alex Pedraza (Golden Gate), and Adam Bradtmueller (Sarasota), Dean McGregor (Ft. Myers) is ranked 12th but only 10 seconds behind Bradtmueller.
This race comes down to two individuals- Tyler and Zack.
Both boys are coming off District titles and County meet titles.
Tyler has defeated Zack every time they have raced against each other therefore Tyler is the clear favorite. Tyler's style is rather drastic compared to Zack's.
Tyler goes out hard to open up a gap and holds that gap throughout the rest of the race. So the big question is how much gap can Tyler create? Can Zack keep the gap close? I think it's Tyler's race to win and possibly secure a course record.
(Ft Myers Green Wave Boys 3A District 11 - Photo by Vicki Brown) The rest of the top 5 finishers will come from the likes of Pedraza, Bradtmueller, and the McGregor pack. I think the advantage goes to Bradtmueller and McGregor since they are running for more than individual accolades. It will be close between Adam and Dean. Adam has three victories over Dean this year compared to one for Dean.
My top 5 Boys individuals:
1. Tyler Bennett - Ft. Myers
Team Race: The team title for the boys will be coming down to the same teams (Estero, Sarasota, and Ft. Myers) as the ladies, but there isn't a clear favorite.
All three teams have raced each other multiple times throughout the season with Estero and Sarasota going back and forth between victories and Estero and Ft. Myers flip flopping 1-2 at the Lee County meet and District 11.
Estero's inconsistencies are prevalent. Estero defeated Sarasota at Flrunners but two weeks later got man handled by Ft. Myers and Sarasota at FSU.
Sarasota is coming off a fast district race with an average time of 16:09, but what hurts Sarasota the most is large competitive meets.
Sarasota has been working all season to figure out their back end.
Estero's advantage is their spread. They have six runners within a minute of each other. If Estero is victorious, they're going to need to race with the studs up front.
Ft. Myers recipe to become Region Champ is very similar to Sarasota's - get their 4 and 5 close to Estero's as they did at Districts.
So who's going to take the title? Sarasota by a very small margin. Sarasota has not lost to Ft. Myers this year and Estero is too inconsistent. Sarasota's 4 and 5 are just a little better than Ft. Myers 4 and 5 and Sarasota has two major studs up front with Zack and Adam to compete with Tyler and Dean. The spread of Ft. Myers is just too large to compete with Estero's pack so Estero will be Region 3 runner-up.
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Individual race: Barring States, the Region 3 meet is going to be one of the most exciting races of the year. There isn't much question about the depth of talent this Region produces, which has 5 of the top 8 ranked individuals in 3A. 
